Fast X debuted as the top-grossing movie at the box office in its opening weekend, but its performance reveals some concerning trends for the Fast & Furious franchise. As the first part of a trilogy of movies set to wrap up The Fast Saga, Fast X raises the stakes, adds more characters, and brings back a few fan favorites, but what does it mean for the box office of the 11th and 12th films in the Fast & Furious franchise?
The Fast and the Furious started the franchise small, bringing in $207.5 from a $38 million budget. Initially the series was focused on smaller street racing heists, but over the years each movie grew more and more with budgets ballooning into the hundreds of millions and two movies, Furious 7 and The Fate of the Furious, crossing the $1 billion mark. While the movies are still earning massive box office hauls, they aren’t earning as much as they used to. Does this spell trouble for the future of The Fast Saga?
Fast X’s Domestic Box Office Opening Is The Main Saga’s Worst Since Tokyo Drift
Fast X‘s opening weekend box office is estimated to be $67.5 million, which is the lowest domestic opening weekend in The Fast Saga since The Fast and the Furious: Tokyo Drift‘s $24 million opening in 2006. It also beats out the opening weekend box office of the Fast & Furious Presents: Hobbs & Shaw spin-off, but when it comes to the mainline Fast & Furious series, it’s lower than every single domestic opening weekend post-Tokyo Drift.
Fast X is the third Fast & Furious movie in a row to open lower than its predecessor, coming in $2.5 million lower than F9‘s $70 million opening, which was $18.8 million lower than The Fate of the Furious‘ $98.8 million, which was $48.4 million lower than Furious 7’s $147.2 million opening weekend. Prior to Furious 7, the box office behavior was the opposite after The Fast and the Furious: Tokyo Drift, with Fast & Furious opening at $70 million, Fast Five opening to $86.2 million, and Fast & Furious 6 opening to $97.3 million, meaning Fast X’s box office is opening lower than the franchise was prior to its rapid growth.
Fast X’s Worldwide Box Office Debut Is Worse Than Past Installments (F9 Is Complicated)
Despite The Fast Saga’s shrinking domestic opening weekend box office, Fast X actually earned more globally than F9 did in its opening weekend thanks to an outsized haul at the international box office. Granted, thanks to pandemic shutdowns and an abnormal global rollout for F9 in 2021, it’s hard to draw an apples-to-apples comparison to Fast X. F9 opened to $163 million in just eight global markets compared to Fast X‘s $251.5 million from a few dozen markets. While it seems like a superior worldwide opening weekend, the full global box office picture isn’t so clear just yet.
Since Fast X and F9 have a totally different box office release strategy, it’s not entirely fair to compare non-domestic box office totals until much later into Fast X‘s box office run, since it’s wider opening weekend virtually guarantees a bigger haul. One clear point, though, is 79 percent of Fast X‘s current box office total comes from international markets vs 21 percent domestic, while F9 ended its run with 76 percent of its overall box office coming from international markets and 24 percent domestic. This ratio will likely change slightly, but the shift towards the international box office is clear.
Fast X’s Opening Weekend Box Office Confirms The Franchise’s Big Following Is International
The Fast & Furious franchise has been seeing a shift towards international box office from the very beginning. While The Fast and The Furious earned just 30 percent of its total box office internationally, the percentage has gone up with almost every release. 2 Fast 2 Furious earned 46 percent of its box office internationally, The Fast and the Furious: Tokyo Drift was 61 percent, Fast & Furious was 57 percent, Fast Five was 66 percent, Fast & Furious 6 was almost 70 percent, Furious 7 was 77 percent, The Fast of the Furious was 82 percent, F9 was 76 percent, and now Fast X is trending at 79 percent.
Big blockbuster movies have been seeing an overall shift towards international box office in the past few decades for a variety of reasons, so it makes sense for The Fast Saga to see the same general box office behavior. It’s also important to note the franchise’s growth has also been accompanied by a more international cast, travel to other countries, and global stakes. While audiences outside the United States might not be as invested in a low budget movie about an undercover cop infiltrating a Los Angeles Street Racing gang, a virtual superhero team of action stars saving the world with over-the top car stunts could have more universal appeal.
Why The Fast & Furious Franchise’s Domestic Box Office is Declining More Than International
The franchise’s box office growth peaked in 2015 with Furious 7‘s $1.5 billion global haul, but the box office has been trending down since then. While both domestic and international box office have decreased, domestic box office has seen a much sharper decline, which is why the international box office percentage has gotten so high. One major reason could be reviews. While critical consensus doesn’t always track to box office performance, Fast & Furious movies have seen decreasing Rotten Tomatoes scores coincide with a similar decrease in domestic box office for the past few movies in The Fast Saga.
The franchise hit its Rotten Tomatoes peak with Furious 7, earning 81 percent, but The Fate of the Furious decreased to 67 percent, F9 decreased to 59 percent, and now Fast X has a 54 percent score in Rotten Tomatoes. The same trend can be seen with the Rotten Tomatoes audience score, with the exception to Fast X’s 78 percent beating F9‘s 70 percent, each movie since Furious 7‘s 82 percent audience score has ticked down slightly. Reviews are obviously always subjective, but Rotten Tomatoes audience scores tend to correlate to movie performance, so the fact that it lines up here as well shouldn’t be a surprise.
Despite Fast X continuing a downward trend for the Fast & Furious franchise’s box office, its strong Rotten Tomatoes audience score and the return of Dwayne “The Rock” Johnson for the final two installments could reignite the franchise’s box office potential like he did in Fast Five, although after a strong of box office misses for The Rock, the future of The Fast Saga’s box office might not be written in stone just yet.
