Pixar’s Elemental release date proves Disney didn’t learn from the mistakes it made with Lightyear. Due to the COVID-19 pandemic, Disney relegated Pixar movies to being straight-to-streaming releases, making the films available to watch immediately on Disney+ without getting shown in theaters at all. Typically, Pixar movies warrant theatrical releases, especially since they have had consistent success at the box office. However, when a Pixar movie finally did get a theatrical release with 2022’s Lightyear, it was a flop for the studio, making $226 million off a budget of $200 million (via Box Office Mojo).
Pixar is the gold standard of animation, as not only do the studio’s movies look better than any of its peers’ releases, but they have mature narratives that also appeal to adults. Whether it’s Soul or Inside Out, Pixar’s movies are known for telling powerful, emotional, and resonant stories, and Elemental is shaping up to fall right in line with that formula. Elemental has a classic Pixar story, with the movie following creatures made up of different elements, such as earth, wind, air, and fire, and a whole world has been created around them. Unfortunately, while it has the potential to be a classic Pixar movie, there are troubling signs regarding its ability to perform to Disney’s expectations at the box office.
Elemental Has Huge Competition At The Box Office
Disney has given Elemental a June 16 release date. June sees the premiere of so many high-profile movies, most notably The Flash, which shares Elemental’s release. The DCU movie has gotten rave reviews after its CinemaCon showing, and it sees the return of both Michael Keaton and Ben Affleck’s Batmen, meaning that it’ll likely be atop the box office that week. June 16 is also the date of Wes Anderson’s Asteroid City, and while that might not be a big-budget movie, Anderson is an auteur with a fanbase of his own, and the movie has a noteworthy all-star cast, including Tom Hanks.
Elemental will have some major rollover competition. Transformers: Rise of the Beasts has a June 9 release, and as the movie is part of a four-billion-dollar franchise, would be in a good position to rake in a great deal of profit in its second weekend. The other side of Elemental’s release is just as release-heavy and barely gives the Pixar movie room to breathe, as Indiana Jones and the Dial of Destiny will arrive on June 30. All things considered, Elemental’s release date is quite surprising, as both it and the fifth Indiana Jones film are Disney releases. The studio is seemingly in competition with itself, but it could mean that Disney doesn’t have faith in Elemental.
Elemental’s Marketing Continues A Disney Animation Problem
Given that Elemental has so much box office competition with countless big-budget movies, the studio should be putting effort into marketing the movie. However, that doesn’t appear to be the case, given that Elemental’s marketing campaign has been underwhelming to say the least. This repeats the problem that Disney made with its last animated movie, 2022’s Strange World. The animated sci-fi adventure flick had all the makings of a blockbuster hit; Strange World had an all-star voice cast, a high concept, and out-of-this-world animation, but it bombed at the box office, making just $70 million worldwide off a $180 million budget (via The Numbers).
Elemental must avoid Strange World’s failure, as the 2022 movie lost the studio over $100 million. That was a result of the movie not having a strong marketing campaign, as Strange World was still positively received with 72% on Rotten Tomatoes. In Elemental’s case, all of Disney’s resources are likely going into the marketing campaign for Indiana Jones and the Dial of Destiny, which is clearly getting a heavy amount of promotion. The choice to release two movies within such a short timeframe is a strange decision, and it’s hard to imagine Elemental not suffering from it.
Elemental’s Release Could Repeat Lightyear’s Box Office Failures
Lightyear’s failure was striking, given that it’s part of the Toy Story franchise, which has grossed over $3 billion worldwide (via The Numbers). However, it’s worthing noting that its potential was crippled by Disney’s decisions. Lightyear was released in mid-June 2022, along with several other movies, and while none of those films were major concerns, it was just one week after Jurassic Park Dominion’s release. The Jurassic franchise has made over $6 billion at the box office, and there was no doubt that the Jurassic World threequel was going to be a blockbuster.
Lightyear’s failure is a result of many issues, such as the confusion around how it fits into the Toy Story universe, recasting Tim Allen, and trolls review-bombing the movie’s IMDb page before its release. However, if Disney released it at a different time of the year, there’s a good chance it would have made more money. As Elemental is being released on the same Friday of June as Lightyear was in 2022, Disney clearly hasn’t learned from its mistake. Disney and Pixar may struggle to make back Elemental’s budget. The budget for the new movie hasn’t been disclosed, but it’s likely around $175 million based on the budgets of recent Pixar movies.
Elemental’s Box Office Is Crucial For Pixar’s Future
Pixar has had a rough few years and it hasn’t had a box office hit since 2019’s Toy Story 4. That’s partially due to the studio having its new movies immediately available on Disney+ because of the COVID-19 pandemic. However, even before the pandemic, the studio’s movies were beginning to underperform. 2020’s Onward bombed at the box office, and though it was significantly affected by COVID-19, the movie didn’t attract people’s attention like other Pixar films have. Then Lightyear, which is part of a billion-dollar franchise, was a huge bomb. That had to be a massive concern for the studio, which means Elemental is Pixar’s most important release in years.
Though the movies’ failures aren’t Pixar’s fault, as the distributor, Disney, is to blame for its odd release and marketing decisions, Elemental must be successful so that Pixar movies stay in theaters. If Elemental isn’t successful, the studio’s movies will likely be relegated to Disney+ releases again. There’s a clear distinction in quality between Disney+ releases and theatrically released Disney movies, and Pixar films certainly fit into the latter category. But if Pixar’s movies aren’t bringing in the necessary box office revenue, Disney may no other choice but to put future Pixar films on its streaming service.
